Analyst View

Strongest growth in PC sales in Q4: Gartner

Worldwide PC shipments surpassed 90 million units in the fourth quarter of 2009, a 22.1 percent increase from the fourth quarter of 2008, according to preliminary results by Gartner. It was the strongest quarter over quarter growth rate the worldwide PC market has experienced in the last seven years. It should be noted that these numbers are compared to a very weak quarter a year ago due to the economic downturn at that time.

“These preliminary results indicate the recovery of the PC market on a global level,”said Mikako Kitagawa, Principal Analyst at Gartner. “The US and Asia/Pacific had already shown positive indicators last quarter, however the fourth quarter 2009 results were more concrete evidence of the recovery. The Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region entered the economic downturn later than the US and Asia/Pacific, so it has been slower to recover. The EMEA region returned to positive shipment growth for the first time in three quarters, and Latin America and Japan also recorded shipment increases.”

“Shipment growth was largely driven by low-priced consumer mobile PCs, both in regular notebooks and mini-notebooks. As economic weakness continued, buyers became extremely price sensitive. Low-priced PCs were good enough for many average consumers,” said Kitagawa. He added Windows 7 was launched during the fourth quarter of 2009. Though the new operating system launch did not create additional PC demand, the launch was a good market tool during holiday sales.

HP maintained the top position in worldwide PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2009, as it grew slightly higher than the industry average. Gartner analysts said HP did very well in the US market, and it regained the No. 1 position in the US and EMEA.

Acer established itself as a leader of the sub-$500 consumer mobile PC segment in key regions. Acer's improved branding strategies also helped it to work better with channel partners. Dell grew below the worldwide average in the fourth quarter. The company did not fully benefit from strong holiday sales. Dell was not as aggressive on pricing as its competitors in order to protect profits.

In the US, PC shipments totaled 19.8 million units in the fourth quarter of 2009, a 26.5% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. Similar to worldwide trends, this was the highest quarter over quarter growth rate in the US in the last seven years.

“Aggressive promotion by PC vendors and channels stimulated consumer PC demand,” Kitagawa said. However, some vendors made damaging price cuts to increase market share.

HP surpassed Dell as the No. 1 vendor in the US based on PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2009. HP became more competitive on pricing, and teamed up successfully with large retailers. Dell struggled to retain its share in the consumer market. Dell could not win the severe price battle in the retail space, and its ongoing weakness in the large enterprise market also affected its growth rate.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, PC shipments in EMEA totaled 29.7 million units, a 3.6% increase from the fourth quarter of 2008. The professional market continued to be weak, but there are indications of optimism as organizations were able to use remaining budgets to purchase PCs at the end of 2009. The mobile consumer market kept the Western Europe market going through the increased volume of mini-notebooks, with total mini-notebook shipments representing over 20 percent of the total EMEA mobile PC market.

In Asia/Pacific, PC shipments surpassed 27.1 million units, a 44.4% increase from the fourth quarter of 2008. China was key to the region's performance, as the country accounted for more than 61% of all PCs shipped in the region. Overall in the region, enterprise demand for PCs continued to be discretionary, but there was some spending to finish budgets. Companies still remain cautious in their spending rather than embark on large PC deployment projects.

The PC market in Latin America grew 42.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009. This growth rate is partly so high because of the uncharacteristically low shipments in the fourth quarter of 2008. Mini-notebook prices continue to decrease as these devices increase their share of the PC market. Recently rising commodity prices will likely spur some PC purchases among certain verticals in Latin America, as well as purchases in the home market.

PC shipments in Japan grew 4.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009, as shipments reached 3.6 million units.