Servers: Up, up and away

2003 was a very good year for server makers, and 2004 promises to be robust as well. Duty cuts, new technology, a better consolidation story—that’s all very nice—but the single biggest event of the year is going to be the 64-bit Xeon launch from Intel, says PRASHANT L RAO

LAST year we stuck our necks out and made a few predictions about the server market. We said that it would be a make or break year for Itanium. We’d also commented that Intel knows that it has to pick up the pace with Itanium. That it did, and how! 2003 saw the Itanium get into business deals for the first time as HP’s Integrity servers shipped in deals covering everything from core banking to SAP to custom applications on Oracle.

According to PALLAB TALUKDAR, at the moment Linux doesn’t scale well beyond 4-ways, but this will come in 2005

Our second prediction was that blades would gain acceptability. That happened, to a certain extent, but it’s still a long haul before blades are truly mainstream the way rack servers are in India. Last but not least, we had said that dual-core server chips were going to proliferate. That they did. HP’s dual core PA-8800 (Mako) chip came out in February 2004, a bit later than the Q3/Q4 2003 timeframe that was expected, but reasonably close to it. Sun took a slightly different angle and came out with the UltraSparc IV, a multi-threading chip that can run two threads per processor.

64-bit SIAS

Last year, Intel’s Nocona chip was supposed to ship in late 2003 or early 2004, and the 4-way version, Potomac, in 2004. Those schedules slipped a bit but Intel’s made it worth the wait by pulling the lid off what chief executive officer Craig Barrett called “one of the worst-kept secrets in San Francisco.” We’re talking about the 64-bit Xeon. It’s official—Intel’s going to incorporate 64-bit extensions into the Xeon DP line with the Nocona launch, and continue that with Potomac in 2005. For once, Intel blinked. AMD’s gamble on taking the x86 64-bit route has succeeded. The 64-bit Xeon is a reaction to Opteron’s growing acceptance. Server OEMs are relieved that the pressure is off. Now that the Xeon is going 64-bit, they have a clear x86 upgrade path to sell to their standard Intel architecture server (SIAS) customers.

The 64-bit Xeon is going to be the single-biggest, server-related launch in 2004. Although AMD’s managed to secure some very high-profile wins in high performance computing (HPC), Intel dominates the SIAS business computing market. With Intel adopting 64-bit extensions to its x86 line, there’s a clear 64-bit upgrade path for IA-32 customers.

“The transition will be easier than it is to go from Xeon to IA-64, where you have to buy a 64-bit version of your application or take a performance hit. On x86-64 (from both Intel and AMD) you can run your 32-bit applications as fast as ever, and, when you’re ready, you can switch to a 64-bit version and take full advantage of your hardware,” says Sam Thomas, assistant general manager, Marketing, Enterprise Product Group, Acer India. He adds a note of caution, “Until applications are re-architected to fully take advantage of 64-bit extensions, you won’t see the full impact of x86-64.”

ANIL SETHI says IBM already has the capability to offer a 64-way SIAS box, but is waiting for applications to become available

Even before Nocona hits the market, IBM has announced a 64-way server built around Potomac. IBM’s already selling the 32-way x445 based on the EXA2 architecture. The upcoming 64-way box will be built using EXA2’s successor, EXA3, and it’ll be out in early 2005, close on the heels of the Potomac launch. “The Nocona with CT is in our roadmap. Our entire volume range will move to Nocona when it becomes available in Q2. The 64-bit extensions to the Xeon give us an amazing amount of flexibility,” says Anil Sethi, country manager, eServer xSeries, IBM India.

With this, SIAS servers are moving closer to UNIX territory. However, there is still a gap between top-of-the-line IA-32, even with 64-bit extensions, vis-à-vis IA-64 or RISC. “There’s still a performance gap between x86-64 and even the low-end Itanium systems. We see three different bands—IA-32, IA-32 with 64-bit extensions, and IA-64. It will help expand the overall 64-bit ecosystem,” says Pallab Talukdar, director, BCS & Solution Marketing, ESG, Hewlett-Packard India.

What of the Opteron, the chip that started it all? Well, IBM and Sun are on board, and HP is joining them, taking the stance that it will support both Opteron and Nocona. Microsoft will come out with a 64-bit version of Windows that will run on both Opteron and Nocona in the second half of 2004. Even before that there’s a strong Linux story emerging on the Opteron. Sun’s Opteron boxes ship with Linux right now, though it plans to ship 64-bit Solaris for these boxes later this year. “The difference between Solaris-SPARC and Solaris on x86 is just 1 percent. The code is being tweaked. We are already offering 64-bit Solaris to customers buying our Opteron servers on the understanding that it will be shipped when it is ready,” says Anil Valluri, director of Systems Engineering at Sun Microsystems India.

Penguin time

After years of Linux being ballyhooed as the next big thing, it’s finally happening. Pundits believe that the market share of Linux could hit double digits in 2004.

SANDEEP MENON expects a Linux desktop and server combination for total branch automation in banking to take off this year

Last year HP sewed up significant deals on Linux. What is more significant is the fact that Linux wasn’t relegated to the front-end or even the application server middle layer in these deals—it was used at the back-end. “Sundaram Infotech uses Oracle 9i Rack on Linux. The 4-way Itanium and Linux combination is very powerful. Horizontal clusters of 4-ways are being deployed. We will start seeing Linux not only in the application layer but also in the back-end,” says Talukdar.

It’s interesting to note that tpc.org lists an HP Integrity rx5670 64-processor Itanium cluster at the top of its clustered TPC-C list with a tpmC of 1,184,893 (over a million transactions per minute), using an Oracle 10g database and BEA Tuxedo 8.1 running on Red Hat Enterprise Linux AS 3.

As late as 2002 and early 2003, companies were still piloting Linux. Today state governments are using IBM xSeries boxes running Linux. “The Institute for Development & Research in Banking (IDRBT) has mandated that public sector banks use Linux,” says Sethi.

This year total branch automation (TBA) in the banking sector with Linux is going to be a big play. “You’ll find finance companies rolling out desktops or terminals with Linux servers. We expect this Linux desktop and server combination for TBA to take off this year,” comments Sandeep Menon, Linux Business Manager, IBM ASEAN / SA.

Novell’s acquisition of SuSE is a factor that will boost Linux’s acceptability with India Inc. “Novell is very credible,” declares Menon.

He makes the pertinent point that if Linux is to take off, the business case has to be about performance rather than cost. But problem areas remain. “Right now Linux doesn’t scale well beyond 4-ways. People are doing proprietary tweaking. Beyond 4-way Linux scalability will come in 2005,” says Talukdar.

So far it’s mostly been 32-bit Linux with first-generation deployments being in HPC or Windows to Linux migrations with an operating system swap taking place on SIAS boxes. With HP, IBM, Oracle and BEA throwing their weight behind the Penguin, something’s got to give. 2004 is going to be a watershed year for Linux on the server.

Silicon shrinking

90 nanometre is going to become the norm for high-end processors. Big Blue has already moved to a 90 nanometre process for its Power chips. Sun’s UltraSparc IV+ is due in Q3 2004. It will be a faster version of the US IV on a 90 nanometre process. Both Nocona and Potomac will be 90 nanometre chips. AMD is making the shift with Athens, Troy and Venus (8, 2 and 1-way chips) due in H2 2004.

Along with multiple cores on a single processor, something HP has already done and IBM and Intel are going to do with the Power5 and Montecito respectively, there’s a significant push towards running multiple threads on a single processor. Sun’s done it with the UltraSparc IV, and it intends to build on this with the UltraSparc IV+ and V.

“The UltraSparc IV and V are multi-threading CPUs. The V will have extra instruction sets that will have optimisations related to Java code execution. The operands used by the JVM for processor calls will be optimised. The JVM will therefore execute faster on the UltraSparc V. We are using chip-based multi-threading technology from the MAJC prototype Sun built three to four years ago,” explains Valluri.

The market this year

Both the SIAS and UNIX server markets will see healthy growth this year. The SIAS market was worth $175 million in 2003, up from $128 million in 2002. IDC has revised its pre-Budget numbers upwards to 15-16 percent growth for SIAS in 2004. About 50,000 SIAS servers shipped in 2003, up from the projected figure in the low-40,000s. BFSI as a vertical saw a substantial uptick. “We expect a return to the traditional growth pattern of 10 percent in 2004,” says Thomas.

The UNIX server market grew by 12-14 percent in the first three quarters of 2003. It should be about 15 percent for calendar year 2003. The forecast is 10-12 percent growth in the UNIX space in 2004.

Linux will move into mainstream business computing. 64-bit x86 will result in enterprises speeding up their migration to 64-bit computing by making it easier for them to make the change. Windows Server has been held back due to the market waiting for the next version of SQL Server, Yukon, which is slated to be released in H2 2004. Many organisations have bought Windows 2003 licences only to install Windows 2000 (which Microsoft allows). 64-bit Windows is expected later this year for both the Opteron and the 64-bit Xeon. Once that’s out and Yukon hits the street, Windows Server will become a more compelling story at the back-end.

Market leaders’ plans

UNIX Servers

l Sun Microsystems: While Sun is still the market leader, HP and IBM are catching up fast. Q3 2003 saw HP match Sun on revenues with both players having about 40 percent of the UNIX server market. That said, Sun continues to lead this segment on an annual basis though HP has overhauled it in volume UNIX servers (by revenues) in Q3 2003. In the mid-range though, Sun continued to dominate.

“We will release a 4-way version of the V20z [Sun’s first Opteron server]. It will also be a rack mount Opteron server, but it will be taller than the V20z, which is a 1U server,” reveals Valluri. Sun is pitching its Opteron boxes for applications that need large in-memory databases—data warehousing or transaction processing environments. “Grid, CAD, HPC, simulation and electronic design automation (EDA) are classic markets for the Opteron,” adds Valluri.

Sun continues to build on N1. The vertical (SMP) component of N1 is due in six months. Banks and telcos are piloting N1 SPS (Service Provisioning System) and the storage virtualisation subsystem of N1.

Sun’s blades are going into compute farms at organisations such as CDFD (Centre for DNA Fingerprinting and Diagnostics) and C-DAC. “The throughput of blades will go up 15x in the next two years…this will be achieved by increasing the number of threads,” says Valluri.

On the processor front, the UltraSparc IV+ is due in Q3 2004. It will be a faster version of the US IV on a 90 nanometre process.

* IBM pSeries: It was an exceptionally good year for IBM’s pSeries UNIX server line. Big Blue gained 6.9 percent market share in the Q1 to Q3 period, and had an exceptional fourth quarter to boot. “We came from behind, and while we are still third in the UNIX server market in Q3 2003, we are a definite challenger for the runner-up slot in Q4,” says Puneet Gupta, country manager, eServer pSeries, IBM India.

IBM’s UNIX server business grew 68 percent in revenue terms in the first three quarters, thus outpacing the overall UNIX server market that grew by 11.8 percent. “Our growth came at the expense of Sun,” affirms Gupta. “We should be able to carry the same momentum [forward] in 2004.” IBM says that existing HP and Sun customers bought IBM UNIX boxes for the first time in 2003. “We won almost everything in HPC and had some wins in financial services as well.” Though telecom continued to elude IBM, Big Blue says it is building traction in this vertical.

Today all of IBM’s UNIX boxes, from the p650 onwards, feature Capacity on Demand. “We started seeing interest in CoD in H2 2003. Some deals have been executed. TCS looked at this feature for an in-house application. They wanted more power at short notice. This deal involved inactive CPUs in a p650 that are activated when they are used,” says Gupta.

The next version of AIX will come out at the same time as the Power 5. It will offer sub-CPU partitioning to the extent of letting IT managers have up to 10 independent partitions on a single CPU. “With an 8-way box that’s 80 partitions. It’s a great case for server consolidation. You will be able to take 30 to 40 Intel servers and move that workload on to a single Power 5 system. This feature will be granular in terms of the ability to manage workloads,” Gupta explains.

IBM expects a lot of activity in HPC this year. “Grid computing has been quiet [so far]. We expect some action on this front in 2004. It’s a big focus area for us with our Deep Computing initiative,” concludes Gupta.

* HP UNIX: HP announced the PA-8800 chip in February 2004. “This chip is pin-compatible with Itanium. The system bus and chipset on PA 8800-based servers are identical to what HP uses on its Itanium servers. Changing a HP 9000 Superdome into a rx Itanium server just takes a processor and firmware change,” says Talukdar.

In June 2004, HP will release the hp mx2 dual processor module that will come with a packaging module unique to HP. The mx2 will let CIOs use two processors and an external cache, and it will be pin-compatible with both the Itanium 2 and the 8800. “You can use either two Itanium 2 processors or a single PA 8800 chip with the mx2,” explains Talukdar.

Towards the end of 2004, HP will come out with the next generation of Itanium-based systems. In terms of its own processors, the PA-RISC and Alpha, there’s one more PA-RISC chip due, the PA-8900. This one will be interchangeable with the Intel Montecito (dual core Itanium). There’s one more Alpha due, the EV79. It will be the last Alpha chip though Alpha servers will continue to ship. HP is defocusing on the Alpha as it pushes the PA-RISC and the Itanium 2. Tukwila, Intel’s multi-core chip due in 2007, will incorporate technology from the Alpha line, so in a way the Alpha will live on as part of Itanium. “The PA-RISC and Alpha line will continue to be supported until 2011,” informs Talukdar.

Right now 20 percent of HP’s deals are on Linux. The company has faith in the Linux-Itanium combination that’s already won it some significant deals in 2003.

SIAS

HP ProLiant: HP continues to lead the SIAS pack with IBM close on its heels. 1-way servers enjoyed the biggest growth thanks to a mammoth branch automation deal from SBI for over 8,000 units. “Banks are starting to look at Xeon boxes for core banking,” says Vaibhav Phadnis, country manager, ISS, Hewlett-Packard India.

HP saw increased traction for its blades last year. It has over a dozen customers for these products in India. “They will start to move into the mainstream in 2004,” feels Phadnis.

Intel’s Nocona launch will be accompanied by a product refresh in Q2 2004. HP will introduce DDR2 memory in its SIAS servers in H2 2004. Serial ATA will make its way into HP’s Intel boxes in 2004, while SAS (Serial Attached SCSI) will make a bow in 2005.

Talking about 64-bit extensions to x86 processors, Phadnis says, “Customers have expressed interest. With Nocona we expect that to start getting adopted faster. There’s already a way to go from 4 GB [the 32-bit addressable limit for memory] to 32 GB of memory using a 4-bit extension that’s available on the Xeon MP chipset.”

8 GB to 16 GB memory configurations are already being used by software houses; this suggests that HP (and others) will find takers for Nocona-based boxes with large main memory configurations.

IBM xSeries: IBM has been giving HP a tough fight in the SIAS space for the past two years. In the first three quarters (Q4 numbers are yet to be announced), IDC puts HP 1.4 percent ahead of IBM.

The Opteron is predominantly finding favour in HPC. For now IBM has no immediate plans of pushing it in the business segment; it is planning to move its entire volume range to Nocona when it becomes available in Q2. With this, the xSeries will start taking aim at applications such as core banking and SAP. xSeries machines are already being used to run the Application Server layer.

IBM now has EXA2, and claims to have a one-year lead on the competition. This is true insofar as it is the only vendor with a 16-way or 32-way story in Intel servers. HP tops out at 8-way, while Dell sells 4-ways at the top of its range. “We already have the capability to offer a 64-way box, but we are waiting for applications to become available,” says Sethi. IBM is going to launch a 64-way Xeon box based on Intel’s upcoming Potomac chip that’ll be out in Q1 2005.

The introduction of DDR2 memory has been delayed to H2 2004. Depending on availability, the company plans to use DDR2 memory across the board in the xSeries.

Adds Sethi, “64-bit capability in mainstream servers [with Nocona and Opteron] makes life simpler for customers who want to try out 64-bit applications. A [64-bit x86] server costs about the same as a 32-bit Xeon box. The move to 64-bit will be that much faster as a result. It helps us add value to running mission-critical applications on the xSeries.”

“Blades are not just another product for us. We offer features such as L2 to L7 content switching network components on our blades. We just announced Power blades (UNIX) that fit into the same BladeCenter chassis. Right now these run Linux. We’ll offer AIX for the Power blades in four-five months. We’ve also announced a 4-way Xeon MP blade in January,” concludes Sethi. IBM’s blade sales picked up considerably in H2 2003.

Acer: “In the April-May-June (AMJ) quarter our product launches are going to be linked to Intel’s CPU and chipset launches. Nocona is due in June 2004. The G510, 700, R700 will all be refreshed in June/July,” says Thomas.

DDR2 memory on Acer’s server line will start with Nocona. Entry-level Xeon boxes will continue to use DDR1 since there is a 20-30 percent price difference between the two memory generations.

“Serial Attached SCSI will take over from Ultra 320 SCSI in Q1 of 2005. The way SATA is moving, UltraWide 640 SCSI is not going to move,” predicts Thomas. He points out that since SAS and Serial ATA are inter-connectible, Serial ATA can work on a SAS fabric.

The company has an innovative plan for the entry-level Pentium 4 server segment. In March-April 2004, it will bring out a sub-entry-level box targeting the distribution segment. This will be a built-up PC in a proper server cabinet that’ll be expandable and manageable.

Acer has a blade product available in specific geographies where demand for such products is substantial. A dual-Xeon blade is on the cards, and is slated to be launched globally in May or June 2004. “While a few customers have asked for blades, there’s no big surge of demand,” says Thomas.

The company believes that 32-bit server computing is alive and kicking. As Thomas reveals, “Not more than 20 percent of our overall shipments are for configurations that have more than 4 GB of memory.” In terms of verticals in 2004, Acer thinks that BFSI buying will be a bit lower than in 2003. Concludes Thomas, “Manufacturing has huge potential. The EoU segment, particularly in ITeS, is big. The central government has also allocated significant funds for IT this year.”