Issue dated - 21st October 2002

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Sentiment improves slightly

Deepak Sahijwala & Sanjay R Bhatia

Positive statements by the Prime Minister on the divestment front helped improve sentiment on the bourses. The week also saw speculative buying in PSU stocks, especially BPCL and HPCL as the Cabinet Committee on Disinvestment (CCD) meeting—to decide on their divestment—has been scheduled in the next 10 days. Traders and speculators were actively buying into auto, index heavyweights and a few other PSU stocks. FIIs however, continued to remain net sellers. Mutual funds, on the other hand, continued to remain net buyers, albeit selectively.

Technically, the benchmark BSE Sensex has formed a minor positive divergence pattern and a minor rally is in the offing, which could take the Sensex to the 3000 level. But any disappointment on the Q2 results front, or any unfavourable news on divestment, could negate the positive sentiment that has arisen after the PM’s statements.

The BSE Sensex is likely to face resistance at the 3000 level. On the downside 2921 is an important support level.

CMC
The CMC stock moved in the range of Rs 42 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day low of Rs 503 on October 3 and an intra-day high of Rs 545 on October 9. The CMC stock has been able to stay above its 200-day moving average successfully and this augurs well for the future trend of the stock. However, CMC continues to face resistance at the Rs 552 level. On the downside, the CMC stock is likely to find support at Rs 495.

Digital GlobalSoft
The Digital stock continued to move in an extremely narrow range of Rs 27.65 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day low of Rs 545.25 on October 3 and intra-day high of Rs 572.90 on October 9.
The Digital stock continued to remain below its 200-day moving average, which is a negative sign. Incidentally, the lack of any speculative interest amongst traders is encumbering the stock. It is likely to move in an extremely range-bound manner till it moves above the Rs 600 level.

HCL Technologies
The HCL Tech stock moved in a range of Rs 19.20 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of
Rs 212.80 on October 3 and an intra-day low of Rs 193.60 on October 4. As we had indicated in our last issue, the HCL Tech stock continued to move in a range-bound manner. It continues to display weakness and if it fails to move above the Rs 200 level in the course of the next few trading sessions, it is likely to fall to a level of Rs 185.

Infosys Technologies
The Infosys stock moved in a range of Rs 202 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day low of Rs 3,406 on October 3 and an intra-day high of Rs 3,608 on October 9. Even though the Q2 results have beaten street expectations, future margins are likely to remain weak. On the upside, it is likely to face resistance at the Rs 3,707 level.

NIIT
The NIIT stock moved in a range of Rs 14.85 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day low of Rs 123.65 on October 4 and an intra-day high of Rs 138.50 on October 9. As we had indicated earlier the NIIT stock continued to move in a range-bound trend. On the upside, it is likely to face resistance at the Rs 142 level.

Satyam Computers
The Satyam stock moved in a narrow range of Rs 15.10 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 214.20 on October 3 and an intra-day low of Rs 199.10 on October 9. The underlying weakness in the Satyam stock continued during the week. A further fall is likely if it fails to stay above the Rs 200 level. It will then try to seek support at the Rs 189 level.

Wipro
The Wipro stock moved in a range of Rs 97.70 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day low of Rs 1,296.10 on October 8 and an intra-day high of Rs 1,393.80 on October 9. On the upside, it faces resistance at the Rs 1,433 level and on the downside, it is likely to find support at the Rs 1,211 level.

View the STRATSTAR FUND WIZARD BUY/SELL REPORT FOR 14/10/2002

Nasdaq
The underlying weakness on the Nasdaq continued during the course of the week, as most international indices continued to hit fresh lows. Sluggish US economic conditions and downgrades on future earnings ahead of Q3 results continue to hamper the trend on the Nasdaq. Investor sentiment continues to remain at its lowest ebb. Unless some positive developments are seen, the weakness will continue.
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