Issue dated - 29th July 2002

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Monsoon Worries

Deepak Sahijwala & Sanjay R Bhatia

Sentiment on the bourses has again turned negative due to the sharp fall in the US markets, with the unfolding of several accounting scams and also due to poor Q1 results by US infotech companies. This, along with the monsoon worries in India, has seen a sell off in index heavyweights, including FMCG and auto sector stocks. Traders and speculators were seen unwinding positions in auto stocks due to worries over the effect on rural sales if the monsoon is poor. This is also expected to have a trickle down effect on companies that rely heavily on agriculture for income. FIIs continued to remain net buyers on the Indian bourses amidst limited purchases. Mutual funds continued to remain net sellers during the week.

The benchmark BSE Sensex has been unable to stay above its support level due to the prevailing negative sentiment. Technically, the Sensex was unable to find support at the 3244 level and the next support level would be 3176 level. On the upper side, it would face resistance at the 3244 level.

CMC
Marginal fluctuations were witnessed on the CMC stock during the course of the week. The stock has moved in a range of Rs 38, touching an intra-day low of Rs 487 on July 11 and an intra-day high of Rs 525 on July 12. The stock is passing through a corrective phase over the last few trading sessions and is expected to move in a range-bound manner.

Digital Globalsoft
The Digital stock has moved in a narrow range of Rs 47.20 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 683.50 on July 11 and an intra-day low of Rs 636.30 on July 17. Profit booking at higher levels along with nervous sentiment on the bourses has affected sentiment on the Digital stock. It has moved below an important trend-line of Rs 655.55 level, which does not augur well. If it is unable to move above this level, we could see the stock slipping down in the next few trading sessions.

HCL Technologies
The HCL Tech stock has moved in a range of Rs 24.10 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day low of Rs 220.70 on July 11 and an intra-day high of Rs 244.80 on July 15. The HCL stock was able to find support at the Rs 220 level, but it has fallen below its 200-day moving average, which does not augur well for the stock. The stock continues to face resistance at the Rs 244 level.

Infosys
The Infosys stock continued to move in a narrow range of Rs 226.70 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 3,350 on July 12 and an intra-day low of Rs 3,123.30 on July 17. Even though the Infosys stock fell below its support level of Rs 3,139 level, it was able to bounce back to move above this level again. The stock is likely to try and move above the Rs 3,321 level on the upper side, if it stays above the level of Rs 3,150.

NIIT
The NIIT stock has moved in a range of Rs 29.20 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 248.50 on July 12 and an intra-day low of Rs 219.30 on July 17. It has fallen below its 200-day moving average and has also fallen below its support levels. The stock is likely to continue moving downward if it moves below the Rs 211.55 level.

Satyam Computers
The Satyam stock has moved in a narrow range of Rs 15.80 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 247.20 on July 11 and an intra-day low of Rs 231.40 on July 17. The Satyam stock could not find support at the Rs 238 level due to profit booking at higher levels. It has also fallen below its 200-day moving average, which does not augur well for the stock and it is likely to move in a range-bound manner for a few trading sessions. It faces resistance at the Rs 243.50 level, if it is able to move above this level it could go beyond the Rs 259 level.

Wipro
The Wipro stock continued to move in a narrow range of Rs 113.40 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 1,360 on July 11 and an intra-day low of Rs 1,246.60 on July 16. The trend for Wipro will depend on how the markets react to Wipro’s Q1 results.

View the STRATSTAR FUND WIZARD BUY/SELL REPORT FOR 22/07/2002

Nasdaq
The much-awaited anticipation of the Nasdaq bottoming out and posting a short-term minor rally has finally come true. After numerous instances of bad news hurting market sentiment, the Nasdaq has succeeded in coming out of the bear grip to post a rally. The present up-trend is likely to take the Nasdaq past the 1450 level, if no negative surprises are thrown up during the week. If the Nasdaq is able to sustain and consolidate at these levels, then we could see the Nasdaq moving closer to the 1564 level where it faces resistance.
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