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Issue dated - 15th July 2002

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Sentiment turns positive

Deepak Sahijwala & Sanjay R Bhatia

Even as accounting frauds continued to be unearthed in the US, the resultant fall in the US markets has had no effect on Indian bourses. This has been due to the prevailing attractive valuations on the Indian bourses. Traders and speculators were seen building positions in Old Economy and infotech stocks just ahead of their Q1 numbers to be declared later this month. The US accounting frauds may have rather helped Indian bourses as FIIs were seen investing on Indian bourses after a long time, and were net buyers during the course of the week. On the other hand, mutual funds were marginal buyers, buying into Old Economy and tech counters.

Technically, the benchmark BSE Sensex moved above a crucial resistance level of 3285 and also above its 200-day moving average, which augurs well for the bourses. The present rally is likely to take the Sensex above the 3365 level, as sentiment has turned positive and FIIs have again begun to invest in our markets. If the Q1 results to be declared during this month are in line with market expectations we could see the bourses continuing to rally and the Sensex could rise past the 3443 level.

CMC
The CMC stock continued to move in an extremely narrow range of Rs 30.10 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 558 on June 28, and an intra-day low of

Rs 527.90 on July 3. The outlook for the stock continues to be bearish and it could continue going downward, albeit with occasional bouts of correction. It could find support at the Rs 506 level, and later at the Rs 459 or Rs 422 levels.

Digital Globalsoft
After moving in a narrow range of Rs 48.40 last week, the Digital stock moved in a range of Rs 128.85 during the course of this week, touching an intra-day low of Rs 570 on July 2 and an intra-day high of Rs 698.85 on July 3. As we had indicated in past issues, the Digital stock was able to move above the Rs 663 level and thereafter a rally unfolded. The stock is likely to rise close to the Rs 730 level.

HCL Technologies
After moving in a narrow band for a few weeks, the HCL Tech stock moved in a range of Rs 33.70 during the course of the week. It touched an intra-day low of Rs 205.10 on June 27 and an intra-day high of Rs 238.80 on July 7. The HCL Tech stock is likely to face selling pressure at higher levels due to profit booking and could face resistance above the Rs 245 level.

Infosys
The Infosys stock moved in a range of Rs 308.90 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day low of Rs 3,085 on June 27 and an intra-day high of Rs 3,393.90 on July 3. The positive sentiment on the bourses has boosted sentiment on this stock. This, along with expectations of better first quarter results on July 10 has helped the Infosys stock to post a minor rally. It is likely to face resistance at the Rs 3,550 level.

NIIT
The NIIT stock continued to move in a narrow range. During the course of the week it moved from an intra-day high of

Rs 254.60 on June 28 to an intra-day low of Rs 240.35 on July 2. The NIIT stock has moved in a rangebound manner and failed to test the Rs 265 level, which was essential for the stock to post a rally. It is likely to move in a rangebound manner between the Rs 261 and Rs 238 levels.

Satyam Computers
The Satyam stock moved in a range of Rs 21.45 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day low of Rs 223.80 on June 27 and an intra-day high of Rs 245.25 on July 2. As we had indicated in the last issue, the Satyam stock was able to move above the Rs 232 level successfully. On the upper side the stock is likely to face resistance at the Rs 247 and Rs 260 level. On the downward side the stock is likely to find support at the Rs 226 level.

Wipro
During the course of the week the Wipro stock moved in a range of Rs 55.95, touching an intra-day high of Rs 1,498.45 on July 1 and an intra-day low of Rs 1,442.50 on July 3. The stock has formed a minor positive divergence on the daily charts and a minor rally could unfold in the next few trading sessions, which could take the stock above the Rs 1,535 level.

View the STRATSTAR FUND WIZARD

Nasdaq
Investor confidence in US markets is at its lowest in decades, thanks to accounting frauds coming into the open. The Nasdaq continued to hit new lows as investors pressed sales after the announcement of several accounting frauds. The only positive factor for the Nasdaq continues to be the positive divergence patterns it continues to form. This should put an end to the fall temporarily and we could see the Nasdaq rallying to move above the 1463 level. On the downside, it is likely to find support at the 1356 level.

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