Issue dated - 17th June 2002

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Sentiment improves as war clouds recede

Deepak Sahijwala & Sanjay R Bhatia

Sentiment on the bourses turned positive as war clouds between India and Pakistan seemed to recede, thanks to positive statements from the leaders of both countries at Almaty. The bourses have once again seen sustained activity from traders and speculators since the last few trading sessions. Activity on the whole was broadbased and was witnessed generally in index heavyweights, including pharma and second rung tech stocks, as traders built up speculative positions. FIIs however have been net sellers during the last few trading sessions, which is a cause of concern. Mutual funds on the other hand have been net buyers on the bourses, buying into value counters. While their purchases have been limited, the positive fact however is that they have turned buyers after a long time.

Technically, even though market sentiment has turned positive, conditions could change quickly with any adverse news on the Indo-Pak situation. The benchmark BSE Sensex looks ready for a 150-200 point rally amidst high bouts of volatility, if no negative surprises are thrown up or if it crosses the 3270 level decisively. Another positive factor for the Sensex is that it is closer to going above its 200-day moving average and this could happen in a few trading sessions. Selling pressure will be seen at higher levels due to profit booking by traders and speculators. The only sign of worry remains FII investments that have continued to remain limited as FIIs stay on the sidelines.

CMC
The CMC stock moved in a range of Rs 65 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 675 on May 30 and an intra-day low of Rs 610 on May 31. Technically, the Rs 672 level continues to be an important resistance level for the stock. Even though it has moved above this level, it was unable to sustain itself and has since seen a fall. For any rally to take place it is important that the Rs 672 level is crossed decisively.

Digital Globalsoft
The Digital stock has moved in a range of Rs 115.90, touching an intra-day high of Rs 730 on June 6 and an intra-day low of Rs 614.10 on May 31. As we had indicated in our last issue, the Digital stock witnessed a corrective rally and moved above the Rs 670 level but was unable to stay at that level due to profit booking. It is important that the Digital stock moves above the Rs 670 level for any uptrend to be witnessed.

Infosys
The Infosys stock has moved in a range of Rs 285, touching an intra-day high of Rs 3,570 on May 30 and an intra-day low of Rs 3,285 on June 4. The stock continued to move in a lacklustre manner, which was because of the lack of speculative interest in the stock from the investor community. Further, due to the opening of the i-flex Solutions primary issue and the TCS issue, which is going to hit the primary market in the near future, attention has been diverted from Infosys.

NIIT
The NIIT stock continued to move in a narrow range of Rs 29.35, touching an intra-day high of Rs 270 on June 5 and an intra-day low of Rs 240.65 on May 31. If sentiment on the bourses stays positive, the NIIT stock could test the Rs 274.65 level in the next few trading sessions.

Satyam Computers
The Satyam stock moved in a range of Rs 22.80 during the course of the week, touching an intra-day high of Rs 238.90 on June 5 and an intra-day low of Rs 216.10 on May 31. Technically, the Satyam stock has stayed above its 200-day moving average, which is a positive sign. It is likely to face some selling pressure due to profit booking and is also likely to face resistance at the Rs 238.90 level. Hence, it is important for the Satyam stock to move above this level decisively for any further rally to take place.

View the STRATSTAR FUND WIZARD

Nasdaq
As we mentioned in our last issue, the underlying weakness on the Nasdaq continued and it declined further to close at the 1562.56 level. Even though it fell below the support level of 1573 it was quick to bounce back and move above this level the very next trading day. The Nasdaq has formed a minor positive divergence on daily as well as weekly charts and is likely to witness a rally in the near future. This, along with positive statements from US Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan would help the Nasdaq to post a rally, which would help it to cross the 1631 level.


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